Proj is the simulator's number: his expected ice time × his per-minute rate (recent games count more; last season counts 40%), adjusted for how many shots the opponent allows, how good tonight's goalie is, and the game total. Pick each team's goalie (ESPN's probable starter is the default) and set a skater to OUT if he's scratched. Chance is what a bet is judged on: the other books' price for that line with their cut removed. EV compares that chance with the best price at your books. Tested on last season's real prices: the books beat the simulator on shots and points, so the chance is the market's. Anytime goal is shown but never recommended — betting the anytime prices that looked best lost 38% (a book out of line on a scorer usually knows something). Treat an edge as "your book is out of line with the others" and let the bet log's CLV tell you whether it works.